Much has been written of 2008 at the slowest start to a professional season for the world number #1, Roger Federer, since the early part of this decade. Last week, he finally won his first tournament out of five entries this year at Estoril. This past Sunday he was a finalist again, but fell one match short of the title against Rafa Nadal at Monte Carlo. For the time being, it seems like Roger has righted his ship and is headed for a strong season.
Roger’s straight set humbling by Novak Djokovic in the Aussie Open semis set off a spirited debate for the pundits as to whether the Fed Express has been derailed. Whether it was effected by mono or not, Roger’s loss ended a string of 10 straight grand slam finals. It was simply a matter of time before he lost in the championship round, and it was not entirely unsurprising that it came at the hands of the game’s fastest rising star. On a slightly less historic note but pithy all the same, another streak was broken this spring when Andy Roddick held back the wave of a 12th straight loss to Federer in Miami.
With the rarefied air around Federer suddenly breached, it seems like the Swiss could go one of two ways: continue the downward spiral or, play with abandon, pull out the stops, and keep his date with history. Certainly no one expects him to win the French Open this year but, with all the pressure off him and on Nadal, who’s to say that it can’t happen? We’ve seen Roger’s armor crack ever so slightly. Is it hard to imagine that Rafa’s won’t also? Rafa’s gritty performance this Sunday taking down Federer, 7-5, 7-5, might lead most to the contrary opinion (including Bjorn Borg – who thinks that Nadal is going to win the French and Wimbledon), but not yours truly.
To be sure, toiling away the midday sun on the slow, red clay courts of Europe is not Roger’s cup of tea. But I’m not going to even wait for the rest of the clay court season to develop. I don’t care if Rafa has lost only one match in his last ninety-nine on clay. I’m going out on a limb here. Based solely on the fact that he’s gotta go down sooner or later (yes, highly analytical, I know), Rafa will be bounced before the final at Roland Garros and Federer will, predictably, be there to complete, claim the title, and complete the career grand slam.
After all, how can a guy who hits a shot like this not win in Paris? (photo from espn)
